Nick Bosa has turned into the value play in the 2019 NFL Draft

Kyler Murray is the favorite, but betting value is on the Ohio State edge rusher.

The 2019 NFL Draft is only a couple hours away, and the No. 1 pick remains a mystery. We had some questions last year before Baker Mayfield news leaked on draft day. This year, we are coming down to the wire and it might not be until close to 8 p.m., if even then, that we know what the Arizona Cardinals have in mind.

The buzz dating back to March has been that they are big on Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray. Back in late December, sportsbooks opened up odds on who would go No. 1, and Murray was second behind Ohio State edge rusher Nick Bosa.

FanDuel Sportsbook opened Bosa at +100 (even money) and Murray at +120 (bet $100 to win $120). Following the NFL Combine, odds quickly changed and Murray moved into favorite status. He peaked at -1000, which meant you’d have to bet $1,000 to win $100. The Cardinals would not confirm anything and rumors percolated about whether or not Josh Rosen was on the market, but people were happy to bet on Murray until he no longer held value.

Draft day is upon us, and opinions might be changing. Over the past 48 hours, Murray’s odds have increased to -350, which means you now need to bet $350 to win $100. He’s still a sizable favorite, but opinions have quickly changed.

Bosa would seem to be the other option at No. 1, but Quinnen Williams is the player most on the move. He opened at +330 and in late March had shot up to +2000. However, he now sits at +300, moving past Bosa’s +400 odds.

Williams, Bosa, and Murray top most big boards, and the Cardinals want us to think all three are in play.

The Cardinals have had discussions today with agents for each of the top 3 prospects on their draft board (Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa and Quinnen Williams), according to multiple sources. I'm told the team is still keeping its plans close to the vest.

— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 25, 2019

If the #AZCardinals have made a decision on No. 1, they are keeping it quiet. Source said GM Steve Keim reached out to at least one player -- #Bama DT Quinnen Willliams -- to let him know he’s still a possibility to go first overall.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2019

Murray had little value as a 1-10 favorite, but now that he has come back to Earth a bit, there is some modest value. Considering how much Williams has climbed, Bosa might be the value play at this point.

However it’s going to play out, we’ll know in two hours.

from SBNation.com - All Posts http://bit.ly/2W7CbIk