Why each NCAA tournament team will cover the spread in their Friday first-round game

Want to bet underdogs? Want to bet favorites? We’ve got you covered.

The 2019 NCAA basketball tournament is underway, opening with a small upset as No. 10-seeded Minnesota had little trouble dispatching No. 7-seeded Louisville. That was followed by a fun close LSU win over BYU. The tournament wraps up three weeks from now on Monday, April 8, with the national championship game.

There will be plenty of Cinderella stories to keep us entertained, but even when Cinderella comes up just short, she can still win you money against the spread. So, it’s time to start figuring out where we’ll see upsets.

We took a look at all 16 point spreads for Thursday’s matchups, and today we’re back with a look at all 16 of Friday’s matchups. We chatted with our network of team brand managers to figure out why each team might cover the spread. Everybody has their own philosophy, but getting insight from folks who are particularly dialed in can help get you a necessary edge to turn this March into a profitable one.

East region

1) Duke vs. 16) North Dakota State

Spread: Duke -27

Why Duke will cover: Zion Williamson isn’t just the best player in the country — he also sets the tone for Duke on both ends of the floor. Williamson gives Duke can edge they missed last year defensively, when Mike Krzyzewski’s team resorted to zone to hide their superstars on the defensive end. Williamson leads a capable man-to-man defense this year that doesn’t take plays off. You can bet Duke will play until the final buzzer regardless of the score. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why North Dakota State will cover: The most likely chance for the East’s 16-seed will be for the blowout to be well and truly on in the second half, leading to Krzyzewski resting Duke’s key performers, particularly with Williamson recently back from injury and Marques Bolden potentially returning for the NCAAs. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

4) Virginia Tech vs. 13) Saint Louis

Spread: Virginia Tech -10

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Hokies have all the markers of a sleeper team, finishing in the top-25 of both offensive and defensive efficiency and entering the tournament at No. 11 overall in KenPom’s rankings despite carrying a four-seed. With Justin Robinson expected to be back, VT should cover. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why Saint Louis will cover: While Saint Louis struggled in Atlantic 10 play, the Billikens are arguably the league’s most talented team. They also defeated three major conference teams in November and December and played Houston, a three seed, to a four-point decision on the road. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

5) Mississippi State vs. 12) Liberty

Spread: Mississippi State -7.5

Why Mississippi State will cover: The Bulldogs can really score, entering the tournament a one of the top-15 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. With a productive, experienced backcourt and to go with size up front, Mississippi State could overwhelm Liberty from the tip. Does Liberty have enough firepower to come back? With the second slowest offense in DI, don’t count on it. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why Liberty will cover: Ritchie McKay’s Liberty squad is another one that can really slow things down, as they’re 350th in adjusted tempo in KenPom, averaging fewer than 62 possessions per game. Mississippi State has played seven games with 63 possessions or fewer this season — with just two of those decided by more than four points. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

8) VCU vs. 9) UCF

Spread: VCU -1.5

Why VCU will cover: VCU ranks in the top 10 nationally in a variety of defensive categories in KenPom, including adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage. That means the Rams will be perfectly capable of forcing UCF into unforced errors. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

Why UCF will cover: Strange as it may seem, given how UCF has played in the last month, it still doesn’t quite feel as though they’ve put it all together for a real stretch. Even in the win at No. 8 Houston, B.J. Taylor was just 1-for-6 from the field. The Knights are the 9-seed in the matchup with 8-seed VCU, the A-10 regular-season champ, and both squads are coming off lengthy rests after bombing out in the quarters of their respective conference tournaments. But VCU’s top scorer Marcus Evans left their A-10 Quarterfinal loss with a knee injury. There’s no structural damage, per recent reports, but the bottom line is he’s not healthy, and UCF is. The Knights obviously have a clear size advantage in the paint (see: Fall, Tacko), and Taylor should have a field day getting to the rim against the banged-up Evans. And if he doesn’t, Aubrey Dawkins and/or Terrell Allen should. With the line at VCU -1.5, picking UCF to cover essentially means picking UCF outright. — Jeff Sharon, Black and Gold Banneret

South region

1) Virginia vs. 16) Gardner-Webb

Spread: Virginia -24

Why Virginia will cover: Throw out last season. This Virginia squad is No. 2 on KenPom in offensive efficiency and has a trio of stars that can shoot the heck out of the ball in De’Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome. Hunter, who missed last year’s UMBC fiasco with a broken wrist, is a lottery pick and is shooting 46 percent from three and has an eFG% of 59 percent. Throw in Guy’s 47 percent three-point shooting and Virginia’s No. 5 defense, and things could get out of hand quickly. — Caroline Darney, Streaking the Lawn

Why Gardner-Webb will cover: Gardner-Webb have several good perimeter shooters, and if the Bulldogs can get the threes to drop, they’ll keep the margin respectable. The Running Bulldogs already have wins over two ACC squads this season (Wake Forest and Georgia Tech), and against the Demon Deacons, getting to the line was key (they shot 40 free throws). DJ Laster is an efficient scorer, and David Efianayi will keep the Hoos honest beyond the arc (41%). — Caroline Darney, Streaking the Lawn

2) Tennessee vs. 15) Colgate

Spread: Tennessee -17.5

Why Tennessee will cover: Colgate features a balanced offensive attack with a legitimate trio of scorers, but their downfall will come on the defensive end of the floor. Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone power Tennessee’s offense and should have a field day with the Raiders’ defense, which ranks in the 200s in terms of efficiency. Colgate faced four schools from power conferences this season — Penn State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and South Florida — each time losing by 10 points or more. This veteran Tennessee team should come out hungry and refocused after an eye-opening loss to Auburn in the SEC championship. Look for Colgate to make plenty of shots, but Tennessee will be attacking the rim from the opening tip. Only a handful of teams can match Tennessee’s physicality for 40 minutes. The Vols should wear down the Raiders and cruise late. — Terry Lambert, Rocky Top Talk

Why Colgate will cover: Colgate can really score, which allows them to stick around in most games. Even though the Raiders lost all four games they played against power conference opponents this season, only their defeat at Syracuse came by more than 11 points (21). — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

4) Kansas State vs. 13) UC Irvine

Spread: Kansas State -5.5

Why Kansas State will cover: Picking UC Irvine almost feels a little too trendy, doesn’t it? Don’t forget that this Kansas State team won the Big 12 outright in the regular season, ending Kansas’ 14-year grappling hold on that title. The Wildcats defend like crazy, finishing No. 4 in the country in defensive efficiency. It will be hard if star forward Dean Wade can’t go, but KSU still has enough juice to cover. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why UC Irvine will cover: UC Irvine has won 29 games over Division I opposition, including 16 straight. While Kansas State is a step up in competition for the Anteaters, the likely absence of Wade for the Wildcats changes the matchup, particularly on the interior. UC Irvine is already the nation’s top-ranked team in two-point field goal percentage defense, per KenPom, so they may be able to limit Kansas State’s chances inside. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

5) Wisconsin vs. 12) Oregon

Spread: Wisconsin -1.5

Why Wisconsin will cover: Recency bias favors the Ducks, but the contrarian betting approach favors Wisconsin. The Ducks are currently getting 58 percent of the bets offshore. With a projected line of 5.5 in favor of Wisconsin, this screams for an opportunity to buy low on the Badgers as the public sides with the hot team in Oregon. Wisconsin finished fourth in arguably the toughest conference top to bottom, while Oregon struggled to stay above .500 in a very weak power five conference. Sure they battled injuries along the way, but so does everyone in college basketball. Ultimately, this game will come down to each team’s ability to make shots consistently. Both teams are prone to long stretches of poor offense, and with both teams playing stifling defense this game will come down to who can negate the scoreless stretches. The Badgers will run their offense through Ethan Happ, and his abilities as a top-tier passer should help Wisconsin find gaps against the Oregon defense should they decide to play their zone look. With more perimeter shooters, this should help Wisconsin on the offensive end. While Oregon is the trendy pick, I side with the consistency of Wisconsin, who has gone 22-13-3 against the spread in tournament games since 2005, according to the Action Network. — Tyler Hunt, Bucky’s 5th Quarter

Why Oregon will cover: The reason why Oregon will cover the spread and possibly win over Wisconsin is they are arguably the hottest team in college basketball, winning eight straight. They had to play their way into the Big Dance by winning the Pac-12 Tournament. The advanced stats show that Oregon has a balanced offensive attack while the Badgers rely heavily on one player in Happ. The Ducks will pull off the 5-seed vs. 12-seed upset. — Joseph Yun, Addicted to Quack

7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Iowa

Spread: Cincinnati -4

Why Cincinnati will cover: This is a classic Cincinnati team, which is to say the Bearcats fight like hell on defense and play a methodical pace offensively. Cincy is top-50 in efficiency on both ends of the floor and just feels like the tougher, more disciplined team. Four points shouldn’t be an issue. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why Iowa will cover: The Iowa Hawkeyes will cover the spread against Cincinnati because they have the firepower to beat the Bearcats. Iowa’s offense is finally unshackled from the chains of Big Ten refereeing and will receive the benefit of the whistle, which will surely anger the pro-Cincinnati crowd. Early foul trouble forces Mick Cronin’s hand in defending Luka Garza and Tyler Cook as the Hawkeyes are able to build an early lead. Clutch shooting by Jordan Bohannon allows Iowa to, at minimum, keep the game within a basket down the stretch. Worst case for a Hawkeyes cover is an irrelevant three from Connor McCaffery as time expires. — Harrison Starr, Black Heart Gold Pants

8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Oklahoma

Spread: Ole Miss -2

Why Ole Miss will cover: Ole Miss doesn’t have the best defense in the world, but they’re No. 65 on KenPom and can make things tough for Oklahoma on that end of the court. Ole Miss makes threes at a respectable clip (36 percent), and although this will be a close one, I like Breein Tyree and Terence Davis to make the difference here. — Caroline Darney

Why Oklahoma will cover: There’s little reason to be confident in this Oklahoma team in its first-round matchup, as this group seems to lack the confidence or cohesion to get the job done in the Big Dance. Additionally, Ole Miss is 23-9 against the spread. Having said that, OU is 19-10-3 ATS in 2018-19 and is also responsible for one of the worst beats in the history of beatdom. Just to be clear, I don’t believe you should take Oklahoma at +2, but don’t sleep on that Sooner Magic (incompetent late-game officiating, in this case) when a bad beat is in play. — Jack Shields, Crimson and Cream Machine

Midwest region

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Iona

Spread: North Carolina -25

Why North Carolina will cover: As a No. 1 seed under Roy Williams, Carolina has an average margin of victory of 29 against No. 16 seeds. Iona ranks 45th in the nation in adjusted tempo, per Ken Pomeroy, and the Tar Heels have historically feasted on teams that try to “run” with them. Their tempo and talent advantages overwhelm opposing teams. With Iona’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 275th, third-worst among all tournament teams, UNC simply has to hold the Gaels under 80 points to cover. That shouldn’t be an issue for the Heels’ top-15 defense. — Tanya Bondurant, Tar Heel Blog

Why Iona will cover: Both Iona and UNC play fast, so if the Tar Heels turn this into a blowout early, it might be another opportunity for a No. 1 seed to rest its regulars with plenty of time left. The Gaels then might be able to play catch-up against Carolina’s backups. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

3) Houston vs. 14) Georgia State

Spread: Houston -12

Why Houston will cover: Few expected to the Cougars to be this good after losing star Rob Gray to graduation, but Kelvin Sampson’s team has come back even stronger thanks to great balance on both ends. Houston is ranks in the top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, running up a 31-3 record because it plays selfless basketball. Spotting Georgia State 12 is a lot, but Houston can handle it. — Ricky O’Donnell

Why Georgia State will cover: Georgia State returns much of the team that played last season’s American Athletic champion, Cincinnati, in the NCAAs. And while the Panthers lost that one by 15, that was largely the result of a poor final 10 minutes. That experience could prevent a repeat performance by Ron Hunter’s squad. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

6) Iowa State vs. 11) Ohio State

Spread: Iowa State -6

Why Iowa State will cover: Iowa State’s going to cover because the Cyclones are a vastly more complete offensive team than Ohio State, with at least four guys capable of scoring (and already have) 20-25 points or more, including one of the most underrated scorers in the country in Marial Shayok. The Cyclones are also finally of out of the horrific slump at the end of the regular season, and are playing arguably their best basketball at just the right time. Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson is a solid big man who takes a huge portion of their shots, but he isn’t any better than Kansas’ Dedric Lawson or Texas’ Jaxson Hayes, guys that Iowa State has largely shut down on multiple occasions. Nobody is going to mistake Iowa State for a defensive juggernaut, but when they defend and rebound even at an average level and shots are going in, the ‘Clones are really hard to beat. — Levi Stevenson, Wide Right Natty Light

Why Ohio State will cover: Iowa State comes into the NCAA tournament with tons of momentum having won the Big XII Tournament; Ohio State comes in with absolutely zero momentum. However, this is a fresh start for the Buckeyes, who absolutely need it. This team with no consistent outside scorer and no reliable leadership made the NCAA tournament; everything else is gravy. While Kaleb Wesson was suspended for three games to end the regular season, a number of other players (Keyshawn Woods, C.J. Jackson, Andre Wesson) stepped up. If they can balance the scoring throughout the entire 40 minutes of play, they have a chance to not only cover, but win. Also, they (hopefully) won’t be playing with Big Ten refs, which is always a good thing. — Matt Tamanini, Land Grant Holy Land

8) Utah State vs. 9) Washington

Spread: Utah State -3.5

Why Utah State will cover: Utah State has some bigger guards in Abel Porter and Sam Merrill who should be able to trouble Washington’s backcourt, while 6’11 Neemias Queta could create issues inside. And with the Huskies being turnover prone and the Aggies excellent in transition, Utah State should have plenty of opportunities to get easy baskets and make Washington’s zone a non-factor. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

Why Washington will cover: Washington definitely stumbled near the end of the season but they already held a four game lead in the Pac-12 standings with just eight conference games to play so it wasn’t surprising they lost their focus a bit. Utah State had a great season but even in a down Pac-12 the Huskies played a much tougher schedule. The Aggies’ 17-1 stretch to end the year included just three games against teams in KenPom’s top 120 and they finished with just six such wins compared to Washington’s 15. USU’s defense is predicated around their shot blocking stud Neemias Queta, but Washington’s Noah Dickerson finished second nationally in fouls drawn. If the anchor of the Utah State defense is out with foul trouble, then the Huskies and Pac-12 POY Jaylen Nowell will be able to get the rim. Meanwhile, their zone, led by the best defender in the nation Matisse Thybulle, will be able to hold Utah State’s offense in check enough to at least have it come down to a final shot. Washington’s a three-point underdog, which would make that a cover. — Max Vrooman, UW Dawg Pound

West region

3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Northern Kentucky

Spread: Texas Tech -15

Why Texas Tech will cover: I think this answer boils down to defense. Tech is the more talented team, that’s undisputed, and they should have the better athletes. So on the offensive end, I expect Tech to be able to get into the paint and avoid the problems with the midrange game they’ve had at times. Even then, Tech has found their stride on offense. I’m on record saying 70-plus in the tourney is essentially a guaranteed win and I’d bet Tech hits 80 in this matchup. More importantly, Tech is the best defense in the nation, going up against an efficient, but not world-beating, offense that relies heavily on their big men. Owens and Odiade neutralize the paint extremely well and Culver’s length combined with Mooney’s hands create havoc for opposing guards. Lock down defense combined with a mismatch on the offense end should allow Tech to really pull away late first half. I expect Tech to cover big time, though I am surprised the line wasn’t down more toward the -12 range. — Macon, Viva the Matadors

Why Northern Kentucky will cover: Even though Northern Kentucky is a good offensive team, the Norse haven’t yet encountered a defense that’s as strong as Texas Tech’s. In other words, this game has real blowout potential. However, if this one gets out of hand early, the Norse are another team that could have an opportunity to keep things close against the Red Raiders’ bench in the contest’s latter stages. — Chris Dobbertean, Blogging the Bracket

6) Buffalo vs. 11) Arizona State

Spread: Buffalo -5

Why Buffalo will cover: The Bulls were one of the Cinderella teams last year, but don’t underestimate them this season. They’re good. CJ Massinburg is a hell of a player, rocking an eFG% of 57 percent and a 40-percent mark from beyond the arc. The Bulls are No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 29 in defensive efficiency. Throw in the fact they’re facing a play-in team that’s already played a game ... I like the Bulls here. — Caroline Darney

Why Arizona State/St. Johns will cover: As we’ve learned with this mesmerizing Arizona State team, they can win just about any night and lose just about any night. Bobby Hurley’s former school will probably struggle with the athleticism of Zylan Cheatham and his ability to out rebound anybody. The key factors for ASU making any type of run this March is the health of Remy Martin and if Rob Edwards can catch fire. Martin was labeled as 60-75 percent after ASU’s loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 semifinal loss. He is the motor that runs the Sun Devils when they’re playing well, so, if he’s healthy, the Sun Devils should be fine. For Edwards, he’s been the only consistent outside shooting presence for ASU, if he finds his stroke against the Bulls, ASU will do more than just cover. — Brady Vernon, House of Sparky

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