NCAA Tournament 2019: Temple was our bracketologist’s lone miss

While the Selection Committee threw some curveballs with its decisions, I was able to foresee some of them.

In hindsight, I should have had faith in Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls. But after they fell in the American Athletic Tournament quarterfinals to the Wichita State Shockers, I had my doubts about their profile, particularly because it seemed to be solely based on home wins over the Houston Cougars (even if it ended their shot at a perfect season) and UCF Knights. So, when the Oregon Ducks popped someone’s bubble on Saturday night, Temple was the team I knocked out.

Oops.

The Owls ended up being paired with the surprise inclusion I did predict, the OVC regular-season co-champion Belmont Bruins, in the First Four. It was the TCU Horned Frogs who ended up out of the field, and they’re my lone miss of the season. (My third season in succession of missing perfection by a single team. One of these years!)

In terms of predicting the seeds of the 67 teams I had in my final projected bracket, my performance was mixed, as I placed 61 teams within one seed line. That’s a decline of two from 2018 and one from 2017. On the plus side of the ledger, the number of entrants I seeded correctly rose to 43 from 38 in each of the last two seasons. Negatively, my more egregious misses rose slightly, as I was off by two lines in the case of six teams. In 2018, only four such teams fell in that category, with five in 2017. On the other hand, I didn’t miss anyone by more than two line for the first time in many seasons.

What about the Committee?

Overall, I was impressed with the Selection Committee’s work. After they held their now-annual February bracket preview show, I wrote that I was cautiously optimistic about how mid-majors would fare this season. And indeed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs held on for a spot on the top seed line, Belmont ended up selected as an at-large and the Buffalo Bulls, Utah State Aggies, VCU Rams and Wofford Terriers earned respectable seeds. Even the UNC Greensboro Spartans ended up as a snub, thanks to Oregon’s win. As for the Nevada Wolf Pack, who were seeded fourth a month ago, well, let’s just say that their inconsistency caught up with them.

The Committee also avoided the temptation of pairing mid-majors against each other in the first round, with the East 8/9 game between VCU and UCF being the closest thing resembling on the bracket “mid-major-on-mid-major crime,” and neither I nor my friends at Mid-Major Madness consider the Knights a mid (and many refuse to call the Rams one). Instead, matchups such as Buffalo against Arizona State or St. John’s and Nevada-Florida in the West bracket and Utah State-Washington and Wofford-Seton Hall in the Midwest will see these quality conference champions paired against dangerous power conference teams. And that’s great for college basketball as a whole, since these are the types of games we need more of throughout the season.

In recent seasons, the Selection Committee has also paid a little too much attention to geography in the first weekend, which is why I had projected Utah State in Salt Lake City. But there was one questionable choice, with the placement of South region’s No. 7 seed, the Cincinnati Bearcats, in Columbus for the first weekend and Louisville for regionals. That’s reminiscent of 2017’s decision to put the South Carolina Gamecocks in-state in Greenville for the first weekend, which ended up being costly to that pod’s No. 2 seed, the Duke Blue Devils. This time around, it’s the Tennessee Volunteers, anchor of the quartet in Columbus, that might be cursing the decision tonight.

Of course, the teams on the top four lines are protected against facing a potential home-court disadvantage in the first round only, so the Committee is perfectly following its principles and procedures when it makes such geographic choices when bracketing. But for those of us who prefer a more balanced tournament to one so focused on geography, it’s a bit annoying that things like this happen fairly regularly now. And placing the Kansas Jayhawks as the four seed in the Midwest — which wraps up in Kansas City, just a little more of an hour from Lawrence — also fits in this category, even if those games are on the tournament’s second weekend.

Get off my lawn.

What about the NET?

I have yet to really dig deep into the bracket or the numbers. However, with a quick glance, I can tell that just three of the four No. 1 seeds count among the final NET’s top four and the NC State Wolfpack missed the field despite 33rd. So, my immediate, poorly-informed conclusion is that the NET is not the be-all/end-all many expected it would be.

For a more complete analysis, check back here on Monday.

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