Every team in UVA’s region, ranked by how likely it is to beat UVA

The Hoos are about 50/50 to lose to somebody, even if you don’t consider their history. Who are the likeliest upset candidates?

The Virginia Cavaliers are the most tortured NCAA tournament team of this era. The Hoos have been one of college basketball’s elite teams for a solid six years now, notching a No. 1 or 2 seed in the Big Dance five times. But they’ve lost shy of the Final Four every year so far and only made the Elite Eight once. In 2018, they became the first top seed to lose to a No. 16, singlehandedly making “UMBC” into something people outside Maryland have heard of.

Explanations vary for why UVA has struggled so miserably in the tournament. One theory goes that the tournament is a big crapshoot, and there’s nothing special about UVA’s futility. Another goes that UVA, which plays offense at a glacial pace, is unable to step on the gas and catch up when it falls behind a hot-shooting opponent. Maybe one of those is the truth, and maybe neither is. I’m not here to litigate the last half-decade.

In 2019, Tony Bennett’s team is as good as ever. Actually, it might be better than ever. The Hoos are No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency rankings, something they’ve never been before. Their offense, long good but rarely great, has actually ranked a tick higher than their typically all-world defense. As a No. 1 seed again, they’ve got all the markers of a Final Four team, except that they’re Virginia and we’re all used to them messing up before that.

FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model says UVA has a 49 percent chance to reach the Final Four. As such, there’s a 51 percent chance it doesn’t, and that doesn’t account for the Hoos’ extreme Virginia-ness. So, I present every other team in the South Region of the tournament, ranked by how likely it is to devastate the Hoos before the Final Four again.

1. Tennessee (2 seed)

The Vols have one of the best offenses in the country, and they could make enough shots over Bennett’s pack-line defense to beat Virginia even if the Hoos don’t play badly.

2. Wisconsin (5 seed)

The Badgers — formerly coached by Bennett’s dad, Dick, and the program with an identity most similar to Virginia’s — could get the Hoos in the round of 32. If that happens, Virginia will be playing a team with a defense just as good as its own. UVA has a couple of possible answers for UW star Ethan Happ, but the Badgers could make enough shots and create a cold enough Hoos shooting day to bring more sadness to Bennett’s team.

3. Purdue (3 seed)

The Boilermakers score a ton of points. Virginia could go cold, as it’s done in tournament losses every other year, and that could be all that’s needed.

4. Kansas State (4 seed)

The Wildcats have a great defense, which brings up the same generic concerns about UVA’s offense stalling out for long stretches, especially if it falls behind. On another hand, K-State’s strength is forcing turnovers, and UVA doesn’t give the ball up a lot.

5. Villanova (6 seed)

There’s a fine chance the defending national champions lose in the first round to Saint Mary’s. But if Jay Wright’s team gets rolling, with all its big-time tournament experience and its still-dangerous offense, it’s not hard to envision a problem for the Hoos.

6. Ole Miss (8 seed)
7. Oklahoma (9 seed)

One of them’s going to get to play UVA in the second round. I am not about to pretend any number of things couldn’t go wrong and lead to the Hoos losing to either of them.

8. Oregon (12 seed)

The Ducks should lose to Wisconsin, but if they happen to be this year’s Cinderella 12th seed, they could get a shot at UVA in the Sweet 16.

9. UC Irvine (13 seed)

It feels highly unlikely the Anteaters will get a shot at UVA, but if they do, they’re a potential problem. They have the No. 5 defense in Division I by effective field goal percentage. They are highly conducive to opponents having bad shooting nights.

10. Cincinnati (7 seed)
11. Iowa (10 seed)

Both are decent. Neither’s likely to get to play Virginia at any point.

12. Saint Mary’s (11 seed)

The Gaels probably won’t get a chance at the Hoos, and they’re not good enough at any one thing to seem like a particular threat if they do.

13. Gardner-Webb (16 seed)

The Runnin’ Bulldogs are guaranteed a shot at Virginia, and that puts them above some others, who won’t get that chance. You are free to attach whatever level of significance you want to UVA having lost to UMBC last year, and also to bet as much money as you want on an outcome that’s probably not going to happen again for many years, if ever.

14. Old Dominion (14 seed)

No.

15. Colgate (15 seed)

No.

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