Could 3 ACC teams get No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday?

How does the Heels resume stack up against some of the other contenders for the top line?

Tonight at 6 p.m., CBS will unveil the 68 teams vying for the 2019 NCAA championship (this time without that terrible alphabetical list). While several teams will be sweating it out on the bubble (we see you, NC State), there’s still a lot of discussion surrounding the potential No. 1 seeds.

Tennessee and Auburn are duking it out in the SEC championship at 1pm on ESPN, and Michigan vs. Michigan State III kicks off at 3:30 p.m. on CBS. Both games could have an impact on the top seed line, especially if Tennessee and Michigan State both pull off a win.

If those two both lose, however, you could see a situation in which three ACC squads hear their names called by Greg Gumbel & Co. It wouldn’t be the first time one conference earned three top seeds: in 2009, the Big East’s Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut all earned a spot on the top line.

Virginia and Duke are truly the only locks for No. 1 seeds at this point. Gonzaga is most likely getting a spot on the top line as the overall No. 2 team in the NET, but for our purposes let’s assume they’re not a given. That leaves two spots that UNC could sneak into depending on what the committee values and how the SEC and Big Ten play out (but mainly the SEC).

Here’s how the teams compare:

NET
Gonzaga - 2
Tennessee - 6
North Carolina - 7
Michigan State - 8

Record
Gonzaga - 30-3
Tennessee 29-4
North Carolina - 27-6
Michigan State - 27-6

vs. Quad 1
Gonzaga - 4-3
Tennessee - 9-4
North Carolina - 10-6
Michigan State - 12-4

Strength of Schedule/Non-Conference SOS
Gonzaga - 46/65
Tennessee - 56/122
North Carolina - 4/14
Michigan State - 28/146

So why UNC?

The Tar Heels have some really good wins, and their strength of schedule is the strongest of the group. UNC’s worst loss of the season came against KenPom No. 30 Texas in November, and they hold wins over Gonzaga, Duke (x2), Virginia Tech, and Florida State. Sure, UNC’s wins over Duke came against a Blue Devil squad that was without Zion Williamson, but the dog fight with their hated rival in the ACC tournament semifinals showed that the two teams are playing on a level that’s basically equal.

Gonzaga’s record tops the Heels, but their strength of schedule is by far the weakest of the group. Coupled with a loss to St. Mary’s — which would have been on the outside of the bubble looking in if not for the WCC title — the Bulldogs ended their tournament with a fizzle instead of a bang.

Michigan State has two wins over Michigan and Wisconsin to go with one against Purdue, but has some head-scratching losses to Indiana (x2) and Illinois. As for Tennessee, all four of their losses are to top-20 KenPom teams, but its strength of schedule also pales in comparison to the Tar Heels.

The question comes down to what the committee will value. It’s easy to look at the Tar Heels and see they’re one of the best four teams in the country, but the “eye test” isn’t an official metric used to pick No. 1-seeds (yet). As of early on Selection Sunday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Heels as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest.

So what would need to happen?

As mentioned, there are still some moving parts. First and foremost, Tennessee and Michigan State would have to lose their conference championship games. Kentucky had a shot at a No. 1 seed, but its loss to the Vols in the rubber match gave the advantage to Rick Barnes’s squad. Neither of those teams is going to have an easy path as MSU faces Michigan for a third time and Tennessee has to face Auburn, a team it lost to to end the season.

Tune in at 6pm to find out how it all shakes out.

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