With losses on Friday night, Alabama, Arizona State and Temple now join the teams that have a nervous wait ahead of them.
Friday night was not a good one for the NCAA Tournament’s bubble teams, as we still have quite a few potential surprise auto bid winners hanging around. The evening’s action continued a trend that began early in the afternoon with the Atlantic 10 Tournament. That conference will now almost assuredly place a second team in the field, thanks to the VCU Rams’ quarterfinal loss to the Rhode Island Rams.
Note: All times are Eastern.
- The Mountain West’s top seed, the Nevada Wolf Pack, fell to the San Diego State Aztecs in the semifinal round for the third time in Eric Musselman’s four seasons in charge. But a bid thief isn’t guaranteed in tonight’s championship game (6 p.m., CBS), as the second-seeded Utah State Aggies handled the Fresno State Bulldogs easily in the second game of the night in Las Vegas, 85-60. Bubble fans will be rooting hard for the Aggies to take their rubber match with the Aztecs this evening.
- In the MAC semifinals in Cleveland, the top-seeded Buffalo Bulls held off the Central Michigan Chippewas, 85-81. Tonight, they’ll look to knock off the Bowling Green Falcons (7:30 p.m., ESPN2), one of the two teams that defeated them in conference play, to ensure the Mid-American is a one-bid league yet again.
- There are two potential usurpers in the American Athletic Tournament in Memphis. The first is the host Tigers, who are now 10-1 against league foes at home this season. But there’s one notable team they didn’t welcome to FedEx Forum — the top-seeded Houston Cougars — and that changes this afternoon (3 p.m., ESPN2). The other potential surprise champ is the Wichita State Shockers, who have quietly won 11 of their last 13 games, including Friday night’s quarterfinal victory over the Temple Owls. Gregg Marshall’s squad takes on the second-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats in the nightcap (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).
- Then there’s the Pac-12, which could now place three teams in the NCAA Tournament following Friday’s results. (So much for my #Pac1Bid bit.) While the top-seeded Washington Huskies were able to hold off the Colorado Buffaloes in the first game of the night in Las Vegas, 66-61, the second-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils couldn’t get past the Oregon Ducks, falling 79-75 after overtime. That sets up a rematch of last week’s regular-season finale (10:30 p.m., ESPN), when Dana Altman’s team shut down Mike Hopkins’ in Seattle, holding the Huskies to just 18 first-half points in a 55-47 win.
Last night’s late results in the American and Pac-12, combined with the Alabama Crimson Tide’s earlier loss to the Kentucky Wildcats in the SEC Tournament, all managed to jumble the cut line picture. But, hey, at least we no longer have to wonder how the Selection Committee will seed a potential 16-19 Big 12 Tournament champion West Virginia!
Note: Team records and NET data reflect games played through Friday, March 15, 2019. (Info from WarrenNolan.com.)
Check out today’s full bracket post to see where the Last Four In are placed in the field.
Last Four IN
Last four byes: Ole Miss, TCU, Florida, Ohio State
St. John’s (21-12; 8-10 Big East)
NET: 72; Quadrant 1 (Q1) record: 5-7; Quadrant 2 (Q2) record: 5-3; road/neutral record: 7-7; strength of schedule (SOS): 73; non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS): 216
Thursday night’s blowout loss to a Marquette squad St. John’s handled twice during the regular season put them in a dangerous spot, particularly because of a NET ranking outside of the top 70. Despite the loss and subsequent rankings decline, St. John’s should be in the field, thanks to a 10-10 record against Quadrants 1 and 2, highlighted by those victories over the Golden Eagles, along with others over Villanova and VCU. However, a relatively weak non-conference schedule and some serious inconsistency in Big East play, including a regular-season sweep at the hands of the same DePaul team the Red Storm defeated in Wednesday’s first round, will give the Johnnies reason to sweat.
Arizona State (22-10; 12-6 Pac-12)
NET: 63; Q1 record: 3-3; Q2 record: 8-3; road/neutral record: 9-7; SOS: 70; NCSOS: 48
For the second season in a row, Bobby Hurley’s squad might get into the field based on its strong non-conference performances, highlighted by a home victory over Kansas and a pair of wins in Las Vegas over Mississippi State and Utah State. These wins balance out the Sun Devils’ inconsistent play in a bad Pac-12 and a pair of troubling non-league losses, to Princeton and a Vanderbilt team that didn’t manage to win an SEC game. Those defeats, two of the five Arizona State recorded against teams from outside of the NET top 100, deflate their own ranking and might make their selection a far closer call than it could have been.
Temple (23-8; 13-5 American Athletic)
NET: 54; Q1 record: 2-6; Q2 record: 6-2; road/neutral record: 10-7; SOS: 75; NCSOS: 220
The Owls’ case largely rests on two wins, both of which came at the Liacouras Center — one against UCF last Saturday and another over Houston from way back on January 9th. Otherwise, the highlights of Temple’s profile are a decent 10-7 record away from home and a lack of disappointing losses, and Friday night’s loss to Wichita State takes some luster off both. The Owls probably needed to win two games in Memphis to send Fran Dunphy to one last NCAA Tournament before retirement. But they didn’t, and now they must wait to see if that dream can become reality.
Belmont (25-5; 16-2 OVC)
NET: 47; Q1 record: 2-2; Q2 record: 2-1; road/neutral record: 13-4; SOS: 196; NCSOS: 74
The Bruins have nearly everything the Selection Committee wants in an at-large candidate, except for a marquee victory. Most notably, Belmont owns a strong road/neutral record and 4-3 mark in Quad 1 and 2 games. Honestly, Rick Byrd’s squad would probably be a no-brainer for selection had they not lost twice to Jacksonville State in the regular season. While the Bruins’ 17 Quad 4 wins are a major obstacle to selection, 14 of those came in league play, so a top 75 non-conference schedule did its part. And as I wrote Thursday afternoon, the presence of six mid-major representatives on the Committee could help the Bruins sneak in, particularly in a year with so many flawed power conference teams in the race.
First Four OUT
NC State (22-11; 9-9ACC)
NET: 34; Q1 record: 3-9; Q2 record: 5-0; road/neutral record: 7-7; SOS: 178; NCSOS: 353
If the NET dominates the Committee’s decisions, the Wolfpack will be in with room to spare and this whole conversation will look extremely silly. But if the selectors really dig into NC State’s profile, they’ll encounter some serious red flags, at least based on past Committee behavior. Even though the Wolfpack owns three Quad 1 wins and eight across Quads 1 and 2, just two came over likely NCAA Tournament squads, Auburn and Syracuse, with both happening in Raleigh. And while NC State finished at 9-9 in the ACC, the win over the Orange was their only conference victory over an NCAA contender. Then there’s the non-conference schedule, and while we can (and will) debate the merits of the metric, the Committee still uses it. And eight huge home wins over teams ranked outside of the top 200 largely fuel the Pack’s NET ranking. And it’s that lack of scheduling ambition may burn Kevin Keatts’ squad when all is said and done.
Alabama (18-14; 8-10 SEC)
NET: 61; Q1 record: 3-10; Q2 record: 7-3; road/neutral record: 8-10; SOS: 14; NCSOS: 43
On Friday in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, the Crimson Tide couldn’t build upon their Thursday victory over Ole Miss, as Kentucky rather predictably won 73-55. Alabama sure could have used a second win over the Wildcats, which would have been their fourth Quad 1 triumph and best result away from Tuscaloosa by far. That’s because much like NC State above, performance away from home is one of the biggest factors working against Avery Johnson’s squad, as their two best wins came at Coleman Coliseum. Being swept by a Texas A&M program that just fired its coach, losing to fellow bubble team Florida and a December 4th home loss to Georgia State also hurt the Tide’s chances.
Indiana (17-15; 8-12 Big Ten)
NET: 53; Q1 record: 6-9; Q2 record: 2-6; road/neutral record: 4-10; SOS: 59; NCSOS: 210
Had the Hoosiers knocked off Ohio State in Thursday’s Big Ten Tournament second round, they would be in the field at the moment. And thanks to five top 30 wins and an absence of Quad 3 and 4 losses, the Hoosiers still have a shot at earning a surprise bid. However, inconsistency, best reflected in Indiana’s 2-6 mark in winnable Quadrant 2 games, will likely relegate Archie Miller’s club to the NIT.
Texas (16-16; 8-10 Big 12)
NET: 38; Q1 record: 5-10; Q2 record: 4-5; road/neutral record: 4-10; SOS: 6; NCSOS: 17
Had the Longhorns reached tonight’s Big 12 final, they could have been the first 16-loss at-large team selected for the NCAA Tournament field. But Shaka Smart’s squad needed to both defeat Kansas in the quarterfinals and win a semifinal to reach the title game and have a shot at recording an 18-16 finish. But Thursday’s loss to the Jayhawks guaranteed a .500 record and I don’t think the Committee is going to select such a team to fill one of the 36 at-large spots available. That’s likely true even with the Longhorns’ top 40 NET ranking, five Quad 1 wins and lofty strength of schedule rankings.
Next four out: Oregon, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Clemson
from SBNation.com - All Posts https://ift.tt/2XYGTtj
This post have 0 Comments
EmoticonEmoticon