The Gaels’ surprisingly dominant win over Gonzaga in Monday’s WCC Tournament final didn’t just cost some unlucky bubble team a place in the NCAA Tournament. It affected the top of the bracket as well.
While America’s bubble teams were able to breathe a sigh of relief after the Wofford Terriers claimed the Southern Conference Tournament title on Monday night, Tuesday offered no such relief. Of the five automatic bids up for grabs last night, only the West Coast Conference Tournament final had at-large implications, and the matchup in Las Vegas certainly delivered drama — and eventual disappointment for the teams teetering on the edge of the NCAA Tournament cut line.
The WCC will be a two-bid league after all, thanks to the Saint Mary’s Gaels’ s 60-47 title win over the nation’s top-ranked team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. That cost the Clemson Tigers, the final team in Tuesday’s bracket, their spot — but perhaps only temporarily, since they’re in action this afternoon.
So while the Gaels enter the field on seed line 11, Gonzaga saw its position on the top line become a bit more shaky. While the Bulldogs entered Tuesday as the second-ranked No. 1 seed, they ended the day as the fourth and final No. 1, now behind the Virginia Cavaliers (East), Kentucky Wildcats (South) and North Carolina Tar Heels (Midwest). Despite the Zags’ slide, they still anchor the West Region, and their location is an important factor to consider when contemplating a potential drop to the No. 2 seed line.
With the Selection Committee placing the No. 2 seeds in their natural regions whenever possible, Mark Few’s team is highly likely to play its second-weekend games in Anaheim, California. But whether they do so as the region’s No. 1 or 2 seed will depend on what happens nationally over the next five days.
After today’s full bracket, I’ll analyze Wednesday’s key bubble matchups, which honestly are more of an appetizer for what’s to come on Thursday and Friday than anything.
Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Tuesday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.
1. East (Washington, D.C.)
Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)
San José, California (Fri./Sun.)
5. Mississippi State vs. 12. Temple/Ohio State
4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. ↑13. Old Dominion (C-USA)
4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. ↑13. Old Dominion (C-USA)
Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)
Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)
4. West (Anaheim, California)
Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)
- Gonzaga vs. *16. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)/Prairie View (SWAC)
8. Louisville vs. 9. Washington (Pac-12)
Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)
Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)
Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)
2. South (Louisville, Kentucky)
Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)
Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)
Hartford (Thu./Sat.)
Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)
3. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)
Columbia (Fri./Sun.)
San José (Fri./Sun.)
Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)
Columbus, (Fri./Sun.)
7. VCU (A 10) vs. 10. Arizona State
2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. *15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon)
2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. *15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Minnesota, St. John’s, TCU, Florida
Last Four IN: Texas, Temple, Indiana, Ohio State
First Four OUT: Clemson, Belmont, NC State, Creighton
Next Four OUT: Lipscomb, Oregon, Alabama, Furman
Last Four IN: Texas, Temple, Indiana, Ohio State
First Four OUT: Clemson, Belmont, NC State, Creighton
Next Four OUT: Lipscomb, Oregon, Alabama, Furman
New Today: Fairleigh Dickinson, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, Saint Mary’s
Leaving Today: Clemson, Hofstra, Omaha, St. Francis (Pa.), Wright State
Leaving Today: Clemson, Hofstra, Omaha, St. Francis (Pa.), Wright State
Bids by Conference: 9 Big Ten, 8 Big 12, 7 ACC, 7 SEC, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Mountain West, 2 Pac-12, 2 West Coast, 23 one-bid conferences
Wednesday’s games with tournament impact
Even though the Big Ten and SEC are among the conferences that tip off their postseason tournaments today, their opening doubleheaders offer little in the way of bubble impact. It’s a different story in the Big East, Big 12, ACC (into its second round) and, to a lesser extent, the Pac-12.
All times are Eastern.
12 p.m., ESPN/Raycom: Clemson vs. NC State (ACC Second Round)
With the Tigers and Wolfpack both occupying spots in the “First Four Out,” today’s game is for all intents and purposes an elimination match. But as I wrote yesterday, even a win this afternoon might not be enough for either Clemson or NC State. They might have to take down Virginia in Thursday’s first quarterfinal too. And that’s a very tall order.
2:30 p.m., ESPN/Raycom: Miami (Fla.) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC Second Round)
While the Hokies aren’t anywhere close to the bubble, they’re very much in the hunt for a protected, top four seed. Those hopes will disappear with a loss to the Hurricanes, a team Tech swept in the regular season, capped by an 84-70 victory in Blacksburg on Friday night.
7 p.m., ESPN2/Raycom: Notre Dame vs. Louisville (ACC Second Round)
The Cardinals have slipped into the 7-to-9 seed range, thanks to a 3-7 finish. A loss to the Fighting Irish would likely cement Louisville’s place on the lower end of that range.
7 p.m., ESPNU: Oklahoma State vs. TCU (Big 12 First Round)
Even though both of the Big 12’s opening round matchups pair potential NCAA squads with teams that finished below .500, neither contest is a foregone conclusion. The Horned Frogs split their season series with the Cowboys, losing 68-61 in Stillwater on February 18th. TCU’s profile might not be good enough to overcome a second loss to Oklahoma State in a month’s span.
7 p.m., FS1: Butler vs. Providence (Big East First Round)
At this point, neither the Bulldogs nor Friars are on the bubble, but given how competitive the Big East has been all season, both are worth keeping an eye on because of their bid thief potential.
9:30 p.m., ESPN2/Raycom: Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse (ACC Second Round)
The Orange defeated the Panthers twice during the regular season, by 11 and 9. And while Syracuse is currently in the 9-10 seed range, failing to beat Pitt for a third time could make it a nerve-wracking weekend in Central New York.
9:30 p.m., FS1: DePaul vs. St. John’s (Big East First Round)
The Red Storm have already seen their position slip because of three consecutive losses. One of those came against the Blue Demons on March 3rd — DePaul’s second win of the season over St. John’s. If Chris Mullin’s team loses to Dave Leitao’s yet again, the Red Storm might need to start planning for some potential NIT home games.
9:30 p.m., ESPNU: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 First Round)
The Mountaineers and Sooners actually split their series this season, with West Virginia’s win in Morgantown accounting for 25 percent of their Big 12 win total for the season. While Oklahoma shouldn’t miss the NCAAs with a loss tonight, Lon Kruger’s team would be well advised to not mess around.
11:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network: Washington State vs. Oregon (Pac-12 First Round)
Saturday night’s 55-47 road win over the Washington Huskies gave the Ducks some hope. That will disappear if they can’t defeat the Cougars for a third time.
There’s also a single automatic bid up for grabs, as the Bucknell Bison will visit the Colgate Raiders in the Patriot League Toruanment final, the last conference championship game until Saturday. For a full rundown of Wednesday’s conference tournament action, head to Blogging the Bracket.
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